for him. it's way too early. willie, what time is it? >> "morning joe." stick around now for chuck todd. is there an exit ramp approaching as russian troops amass in crimea? vladimir putin denies they're even russian. a lot of moving part this is morning as secretary kerry arrives in ukraine. what we can learn about the entire 2014 campaign and how one candidate is working on 50 years of family history on the ballot. and more developing news this morning. the president's outside political operation making changes in the wake of an exclusive nbc news report on their fund-raising operation. we'll have more on what organizing for action chief jim messina has now told his team.

good morning from washington. it's tuesday, march 4th, 2014. this is "the daily rundown." first reads of the morning, russian president vladimir putin went before the media this morning to defend his country's actions in the wake of the ukrainian revolution, arguing that it amounted to a coup that demanded a russian response. he he told reporters he would use force in ukraine only as a last resort, he claimed. but he said he reserves the right to do so. putin also said further military action would be justified because the ousted president, victor yanukovych has requested it. he said anything russia does would be to protect the citizens of ukraine. and he even told reporters that the soldiers currently in crimea, they're not russian soldiers at all. he called them local forces. now, responding to the united

states, the russian leader shrugged off threats of diplomatic or economic punishments. meanwhile, president obama said monday that russia has a choice. >> over time, this will be a costly proposition for russia. and now is the time for them to consider whether they can serve their interests in a way that resorts to diplomacy as opposed to force. >> 000 the ground tensions remain high but perhaps not quite as high as they were 24 hours ago. russian troops had been conducting military exercises near the ukrainian border, but they've now been told to return to their bases. it's not clear if it was a response to western warnings to deescalate the crisis or if the exercises simply came to an end. in crimea they seized an air base and fired warning shots at ukrainian soldiers.

now the soldiers eventually backed down, but not before several shots were fired. ukrainian authorities estimate at least 16,000 pro-russian forces are now inside crimea. at the same time, a pair of ukrainian war ships were blockaded in their port from four russian naval vessels and the head of ukraine's security service told reuters that the communication system and specifically government communications had been hit with cyber attacks. we know the russians are very aggressive on the cyber front. on monday, the u.s. ambassador to the u.n., samantha power, rejected russian claims that their national interests are somehow at stake in ukraine. >> russian mobilization is a response to an imaginary threat. military action cannot be justified on the basis of threats that haven't been made and aren't being carried out. >> now this morning secretary of state john kerry arrived in kiev

to meet with ukrainian interim prime minister and to pledge new aid for the new government. it include s $1 billion in loan guarantees just from the united states, technical help from the central bank, institutions and in help conducting new elections. back in the united states, president obama met for two hours with his national security council last night to discuss additional ways to isolate russia and try to pressure them to pull back from ukraine. the state department said sanctions are likely and they may be announced within days. the problem is the best leverage against russia doesn't rest with the united states. it's in europe. and those countries haven't shown the appetite yet for the action that would be necessary potentially to push putin. today, nato ambassadors will hold a second meeting for a request for additional -- has

called on russia to withdraw its troops but have taken no steps to back that up. due to the billions of dollars tied up in trade deals between russia and the eu. that last point could actually end up being a big factor. after speaking to president putin by phone, german chancellor angela merkel told president obama she wasn't sure that putin was in touch with reality. in her words she said, "putin's in another world." jim maceda, with where do we go from here. that was some press conference. >> reporter: yes, it was. you summed it up very well. it went on for an hour and a half. it was the first time we've seen him speak about anything, much less ukraine, over ten days. putin, couple of things, chuck. putin called the military intervention in crimea extraordinary, but legitimate.

rehashing old ground. but i think his key comment came when he asked about what happens next. he said he didn't think the use of force was necessary at this time in crimea or elsewhere in ukraine, leaving open the possibility but only as a last resort. now that signal, coupled with images today of russian forces returning back to their bases, after putin announced late yesterday the end of those war games along -- not by accident, ukraine's border with russia. those two signals could potentially, potentially lower the temperature in the standoff which obviously has become extremely tense. meanwhile, you talk about the u.s. and its allies, struggling to come up with an effective package of sanctions. putin addressed the sanctions issues as well. he warned the west. again, his tone was calm, unthreatening, that in today's interconnected world, sanctions could easily hurt those who oppose them. i'm paraphrasing him.

but perhaps he's referring to europe's dependence on russia's natural gas. although putin didn't spell it out, we're getting a much clearer idea about russia's end game. it really does seem to be return to the february 2 st agreement, national unity government, electrics by december. that's a nonstart thor. both sides are are at least still talking again. chuck? >> it does seem as though he's searching for that exit ramp, jim maceda, in moscow. let's go now to andrea mitchell, traveling with secretary kerry. she joins me now on phone. i think i saw you in the background, following around john kerry as he was in the square there this morning. what more can you tell us about the aid package that kerry is delivering? >> well, it's $1 billion in loan guarantees, still has to be approved by congress. they seem to be pretty confident. when he arrived here, as you saw, we went immediately to the

square. he lit a candle at the makeshift shrine to those who have fallen, surrounded by flowers, barbed wire as to how he felt and he said several times over, it's very moving. it's so moving, what people have sacrificed here. he has stopped and did stop frequently to talk to people, old and young and one older woman saying we are so poor. we are not separatists. we are poor. we need help. what the aid package also includes, chuck, is technical advice to the central bank, to the financial ministers, to try to recover stolen assets so they are sending people, the imf team is already on the ground. jack lew announced right now kerry is meeting with the transitional leaders, accompanied by the u.s. ambassador here and victoria nuland, who has played such an important role here in supporting the protesters and becoming the target of russia's

supported eavesdropping in a leaked phone call. chuck? >> it is, it's busy. andrea, after his meetings today, it's off to paris. andrea, thanks very much. we'll be check in with you a lot today as well as on your own hour at noon. joining me now, washington editor at large and msnbc contributor and sandy berger former adviser under president clinton. let me start with you. mike mcphal, you workd with him during the clinton years. he took away from the press conference that putin doesn't know what to do next. do you think that's the case, that putin actually, while he's trying to show confidence, he may have acted emotionally and now doesn't have a plan b? >> putin was very angry at what happened in kiev. yanukovych mishandled the situation. >> let putin down. >> let putin down. he sees a western hand behind

everything. so, things did not play out as he wanted. he is now seeing sort of the last piece of the former soviet empire falling away. so, it's a bit of desperation. and so i think in some sense, this is a reactive act, but it's dangerous. he's there. and we have to make it very clear to him that he has a fundamental choice here. >> right. >> if he stays on this path, he faces isolation and a very bad future. if he gets off this path, he can redeem the investment of sochi. >> sure. >> and be part of the international community. >> it seems it's political isolation he faces first. financial isolation seems to be uncertain. i get the sense that the obama white house wants to do something tough and feel as if they toedon't have the tools to

it. >> it's very hard to be tough with a guy who has got a lot of assets and a lot of wealth. what sandy just said, the aspirations of vladimir putin and many around him have want sd to have russia to be respected in the world and seen as a stakeholder. to threaten them with the possibility of robbing that track away, it makes them make other choices. the dilemma here is in contrast -- this is a friendly critique of the obama white house. when sandy berger and bill clinton were in the white house, they dealt with russia. had you lots of different touch points, some good, some bad. you would deal with russia. i don't get the sense that we're dealing with russia in the same sense as where we're dealing with china, where there are strategic and economic tracks, assessing what's going on. it looks to me like putin has a strategy with us and he's giving us trouble on many, many different fronts and we're dealing with him, as richard

haas sort of said, we need to deal with ukraine one square the a time. i disagree with richard for the first time in my life. we need to look at the whole chessboard. >> in here saying you have to deal with russia, everything needs to be on the table, iran, syria, ukraine. it needs to be bilateral discussions with the russians. we can pretend -- >> snowden. >> snowden is another one. we can pretend this isn't the cold war anymore but if he's going to act this way, we have no choice. >> all of these things relate to one another. but we have an immediate situation in front of us in ukraine. >> right. >> we have to make it absolutely clear. this is a very dangerous situation over the next days and weeks and months. >> are you as shocked that the ukrainians have basically kept their powder dry? unlike what happened between georgia and russia? it's been impressive. >> ukrainians deserve a great deal of credit. one of putin's objectives here was to provoke the ukrainians.

>> try to bait them. >> bait them and provide a pretext to go farther into ukraine. ukrainians, with a very weak new government show remarkable restraint and i give the obama administration and others some credit for having encouraged that. so, yes, there's a broader range of issues. syria, iran, that have to be part of the larger chessboard here. we have to deal with it, with a combination of deterrence and diplomacy. we have to make it clear to putin to the door is closed with a window open. >> make him back down on the sanction front or will the sanctions not really have any teeth unless the europeans are involved ? >> i think we're thinking of it

the wrong way. i don't think it's a push-up. one of the things the president is trying to do is get the political leadership in both chambers of congress to support an aid package. >> a small aid package. >> but that is the key point. russia was going to lay out $15 billion in aid. we're coming up with 6% of that. maybe that becomes 10% or 12% of what the russians were going to do. that's not enough. that's basically aiding, in a global crisis, on the cheap. we don't understand the fact that if ukraine's economy goes -- if we want to send unilateral action that matters, invest deeply. adopt ukraine economically. help them succeed. that shows putin where our real chips are. to try to do that on the cheap does not compel him to think -- >> this is the the time for the president to go to congress. >> and be more aggressive? >> yes. >> you're concerned about this. many have spoken up about it. >> put your money where your mouth is. >> this is a crisis. let's come together on this. use this money now as leverage

with the imf and others to try to have a multilateral response. it is better here if we can act together. russia likes to divide the allies and sure. >> and operate in -- >> what should be the role of nato here? sandy, what is the role of nato? >> first of all, nato is here to assure the nato allies, who are nervous. >> yorgea and ukraine wish that they were part of nato. >> there's not a new russia. we have to make it clear we're with them, we're there and will reinforce them. even with the threat to ukraine, if something were to happen inside ukraine, we would have to look at reinforcing the region.

i don't think this is primarily a nato issue. >> steve clemens, sandy berger, nice to see you. thanks for coming out. good to get your perspective. steve, as always, appreciate it. mideast process would be the least problematic issue on the president's plate this week? we'll have that later on in the show. they actually made some decent progress yesterday. organizing for action spurs the group itself to have to change its policies. we have the details on the other side of the break. of course, if it's tuesday, you know what that means. somebody is voting somewhere. today it's a big somewhere. primaries in texas, which officially kick off the 2014 election season. we'll take you to the lone star state where the story lines we're watching go beyond that large border. first, a look ahead at today's politics planner. sort of back to work today. a lot of things spottily closed or delayed here in washington.

we'll see some big senate fights. it's budget day. remember when those were big fights? you're watching "the daily rundown" on msnbc. n 1971. [ male announcer ] once it's earned, usaa auto insurance is often handed down from generation to generation. because it offers a superior level of protection. and because usaa's commitment to serve current and former military members and their families is without equal. begin your legacy. get an auto insurance quote. usaa. we know what it means to serve. a 401(k) is the most sound way to go. let's talk asset allocation. sure. you seem knowledgeable, professional. i'm actually a dj. [ dance music plays ] woman: [laughs] no way! that really is you? if they're not a cfp pro, you just don't know.

cfp -- work with the highest standard. [ male announcer ] nothing says, "you're my #1 copilot," like a milk-bone biscuit. ♪ say it with milk-bone. ♪ so our business can be on at&t's network for $175 a month? yup. all 5 of you for $175. our clients need a lot of attention. there's unlimited talk and text. we're working deals all day. you get 10 gigabytes of data to share. what about expansion potential? add a line, anytime, for $15 a month. low dues, great terms. let's close! new at&t mobile share value plans our best value plans ever for business.

to nbcuniversal's coveragens of the biggest loser olympic winter games ever, with the most coverage of the most events on every device. and the most hours of streaming video on the nbc sports live extra app, including the x1 platform from xfinity. comcast was honored to bring every minute of every medal of nbcuniversal's coverage to every screen. so what's next? rio 2016. welcome to what's next. comcast nbcuniversal.

>> we have some new developments in the wake of that special "daily rundown" about the pardon of a secret donor whose big check was returned, rerouted and ultimately rejected in the world of the democratic nonprofit super pac world, whatever you want to call it. the nbc probe of the white house backed political advocacy group, organizationing for action or ofa, has led to changes within that group especially when it comes to promising access, transparency and redirecting political donations.

to sum up, ofa acknowledges that the executive director john carson actually set up two meetings for a potential donor to discuss his own legal problems, one with an official from the white house and the other with an official with usaid. it says it is now revamping its fund-raising policies, reaffirmi reaffirming and extending a ban on access to other groups. ofa acknowledges that now twice before diverted questionable donations to other so-called dark money, nonprofit that is don't disclose donor names. we first reported friday that the fund-raiser was offering access to the president. a donor was seeking a pardon at the time. it's unclear if they knew about it. that donor's check was sent back. then it was returned to one of ofa's sister organization that is doesn't report or disclose donor names. later dismissed and has not

respond ed responded to requests for comment. while the contributions in question were never made, i fell short in meeting my responsibility as executive director of ofa to assure that no question about our standards could even be reasonably raised. and in an internal memo, the chairman of the board, jim messina says this. as you know, our organization recently fell short of the standards. we will learn from these mistakes and recommit ourselves to the changes needed to strengthen our relevant policies and procedures for ensuring compliance with them. they then explained the significant changes. for more on those developments i'm joined by the reporter who has been working on this story for week, michael isikoff. you had all the information, all the e-mails. of course, they're making changes after being caught. >> right. >> the question is, is this a system that is just impossible to run ethically?

>> that is a really good question. what we've gotten here is a fascinate i fascinating glimpse into this 501-c-4, where there's little or no disclosure of donors. >> and ofa does voluntarily disclose. >> that's right. >> but they don't have to either. >> they don't have to. because of political pressure from watchdog groups. >> us and the media questioning them. >> they said they would disclose their donors and not take money from corporations and other business before the government. what happened here is had an they've now acknowledged, in addition to the matter we talked about the other day, is in another case last july, they get a $250,000 check from a donor with a past legal problem or an offer for a $250,000 check. they suggest he write it to another 501-c-4 political nonprofit.

that was last july. this january they get a $75,000 check from a corporation. they said they weren't going to take money from corporations. but it's written out to another one of these allied nonprofit. they won't tell us which one or who the donors are. but. >> the checks are on the screen right now. >> but it does make you raise some questions, what's going on here? how often does this sort of thing take place in this world? >> right. all we have are these examples that we found out. >> we happen to have confronted them with the one instance that we had gotten. i want to talk also about the access for the perspective donor. that, to some people, is the most serious issue here, right? >> right. >> what we had was the e-mails, this one guy, new jersey businessman, political bundler, close to chris christie, has -- wants to meet with somebody at the white house about a legal problem he's having with the federal agency. on january 28th, jon carson, executive director of ofa sets

up a meeting at caribou coffee. the very next day, according to the e-mails, kasmir writes an e-mail to samantha, i have a 100 k solid for dinner with the president last week. >> very quickly, this is when the system -- the fund-raisers get paid by commission. >> yeah. >> and everybody wonders how do corners get cut. the way the incentives work make it so that in many cases the fund-raisers -- an executive director can say these are our rules. fund-raiser who is getting paid based on how much money they raise will incentivize to cut corners. >> that's true. in the entire world -- >> this is why this is such a -- all of this is basically a corruptible -- it's so easy to see how you get corrupted even if your intention isn't to do it. >> i think there will be a lot more looking at how this world

operates in this election cycle. >> michael isikoff, i think it's astounding, the amount of money that's already put in this election cycle and not a single vote has technically been counted yet, although that happens tonight. thank you, sir. the president officially unveils his budget today. we have more on that coming up in the data bank. first today's trivia question. as texans head to the polls, who was the first republican elected to the u.s. senate from texas during the 20th century? first person to tweet the correct answer to @chucktodd or @dailyrundown will get the shoutout on tdr. here's a word you should keep in mind "unbiased". some brokerage firms are but way too many aren't. why? because selling their funds makes them more money. which makes you wonder. isn't that a conflict? search "proprietary mutual funds". yikes!!

then go to e*trade. we've got over 8,000 mutual funds and not one of them has our name on it. we're in the business of finding the right investments for you. e*trade. less for us, more for you. the fund's prospectus contains its investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and other important information and should be read and considered carefully before investing. for a current prospectus visit www.etrade.com/mutualfunds.

time for your tuesday data ba bank. we start with the president's budget for 2014. there are a lot of numbers, of course. this one grabbed our attention, 13.5 million, that's how many would get a tax break, expanding the earned income tax credit for

low-income americans who don't have kids and help more families pay for child care. the president would kill two loopholes, for capital gains, the other known as the newt gingrich loophole, which allows people to treat income like corporate profits. on this budget, the big number, as in how much money the government is going to spend over the next two years, that's been agreed to. this is an argument over how to spend that money. next up, 8, as in the gang of eight senators who are getting an award from the largest hispanic civil rights group. it's recognizing immigration reform. the house hasn't budged on the issue. will the group of eight all show up together and accept the award? that's interesting. 60-second ad going after house republicans, by the way, for failing to bring the bill to the floor. showing you a little highlight there. deep freeze, 90.5%, that's how much of all of the great lakes are covered in ice.

noaa released this map, showing the vast cold cover. that's the most ice cover in 34 years on the great lakes and it's close to an all-time record. and speaking of cold, 44 degrees. that's the forecast high today for fat tuesday in new orleans. if you're boozing it up, it's going to feel a lot warmer than 44, i guess, with all that bourbon on bourbon street. people are wearing long sleeves to the parades. the coldest mardi gras was in 1899 when the temperature hovered just below 7 degrees. probably needed moonshine that year. final number, 3, how many classic corvettes crews say they can save from that sinkhole in kentucky. we finally have pictures of that. swallowed kov corvettes at the national museum last month, they pulled out two and are carefully extracting the third. the operation could take six days. general motors plans to restore

those cars. i wonder what happens when do you the car fax, what do they say when it comes in? sink hole? how does that show up on your car fax? march to the mid terms begins officially in texas with the primaries. tdr deep dive is next. hey linda!

what are you guys doing? having some fiber! with new phillips' fiber good gummies. they're fruity delicious! just two gummies have 4 grams of fiber! to help support regularity! i want some... [ woman ] hop on over! [ marge ] fiber the fun way, from phillips'. [ woman ] hop on over! thcar loan didn't start here. it started with that overdue bill he never got. checking his experian credit report and score allowed him to identify and better address the issue. then drive off into the sunset. experian. when jake and i first set out on we ate anything. but in time you realize the better you eat, the better you feel. these days we both eat smarter. and i give jake purina cat chow naturals. made with real chicken and salmon, it's high in protein like a cat's natural diet.

and no added artificial flavors. we've come a long way. and whatever's ahead, we'll be there for each other. naturally. purina cat chow naturals.

big state primary day. 2014 election officially began about 90 minutes ago. that's when polls opened in texas. it's a state with a ton of early voting. today is the early primary day, a look at what's been called a primary race on steroids. it's a texas-sized campus for national storylines that we'll be following all year. tea party challenges, reliance on women candidates. second, third and fourth generation heirs to political dynasties propping up everywhere this year, including texas.

given that texas is now a majority/minority state, the power of demographic change to transform the future political landscape, it's all in texas. don't expect it all to end for 12 more weeks. texas election law requires a runoff. and a slew of crowded primaries mean many campaigns won't be over until after a runoff. it will test the strength of the tea party, in a state that the republican party has not lost statewide race since 1994 when a host of conservative hopefuls, capture conservative lightning in a bottle. texas republican party to the right, his shadow has not hurt his counterpart in the senate, jon cornyn, even though cruz has refused to endorse him so far. >> likely going to stay out of the incumbent republican primaries and that is true outside of texas and inside of texas in congressional races. i like jon cornyn. he and i have worked together

very closely. we've agreed on the vast majority of things. there are some areas on which we disagreed. >> cornyn's primary kicks off half a dozen right on right senate contests we're tracking this year, but races that were supposed to be heavyweight matches appear to have fizzled. it started with the challenge to senator mike enzi by liz cheney in wyoming. last fall cornyn looked like he would be vulnerable, but then groups stayed on the sidelines. couldn't find a real challenger. cornyn ended up with one but not one that was that serious, congressman steve sockman, who has run a bizarre campaign. disappeared from the campaign trail for weeks, and ended with just over $47 in his house account, racked up campaign debt. still despite the fact, cornyn has several challengers, including stockman. he said my goal is to win the election without a runoff and i think we'll achieve had an goal. he will probably do that and then some. on the tea party front, there

are some that have to worry today. pete session sincere also in the tea party firing line, though he remains the favorite on sarah palin backed 32 nd district. oldest member of congress, 90-year-old ralph hall, trying to make his age into an asset in an 11th hour campaign ad. >> when you battle nancy pelosi as much as i have, you're bound to get a few wrinkles. see this one? got it taking on the liberals when they attacked our second amendment right. >> for democrats in texas, it's two steps forward, one step back today just at the time they have the strongest gubernatorial ticket in decades, embarrassment from a woman named keisha rogers, running in the democratic primary for the u.s. senate. she's a woman who has called on impeaching obama, has a picture of the president with a hitler

mustache on her campaign website. >> are we going to continue to grovel at the foots of president obama, the british empire and wall street, or are we going to put an end to that system and actually move toward a system of progress? >> ah, the the crazy british empire conspiracy that larouche has been pushing for years. they've come out against rogers. four other candidates in that senate primary, desperately urging democrats not to vote for her. it would be an embarrassment for them, state-wide nominee for the senate could end up pushing her into that nomination. it's possible low turnout, low information primary, that she could win. to prevent larouche from getting nomination is a sign they're still struggling in this state. rick perry is not on the ballot

today. for the first time since 1998, five of the six statewide top executive positions are open. governor's race where attorney general gray abbott and likely democratic opponent wendy davis are running with nominal opposition. they're using today's primary to kickoff their gubernato are. ial campaigns. the real test of the establishment versus the tea party, three republicans are taking on the incumbent, david dewhurst, lane commissioner jerry patterson. they believe he is beatable, especially after he lost the campaign against senator ted cruz. >> the office of the governor is supposedly the most powerful in the state and a republican has held it over a decade. why haven't the issues of border secure, debt and real tax relief passed? >> dewhurst thanked the obama administration for federal

stimulus money. dewhurst owes staff over $1 million and won't pay his bills. >> i'm running for lieutenant governor because there's a vacuum of leadership in austin. texas needs real conservative leadership. >> with a runoff almost certain in that lg race, dewhurst, dan patrick running second in many polls, has been a target of jerry patterson, who hired a private investigator, who claimed he he hire d them while in the united states illegally in the 1980s. good old-fashioned dirty politics going on there, huh? familiar faces are on the ballot today. george p. bush, nephew of george w., son of jeb bush, has been on the ballot. >> i pledge legionance to the flag of the united states of america and to the republic for which it stands.

>> today, 50 years after george h.w. bush was first on the ballot in the state of texas, he ran for the u.s. senate and lost that year, paving the way for the house seat he won in '66, texas is poised to elect its third george bush, this one is latino, george p. bush. third time is unlikely to be the charm for texas-sized candidate named friedman. another try at the ag job. the singer and satirist is putting marijuana at the center of his campaign. >> winston churchill lost more elections than just about anybody that was ever in politics and abraham lincoln lot a slue of them. if you fail at something long enough, you become a legend. >> man, we're going to miss kinky if he doesn't make these

runoffs today. more texas polls close at 8:00 pm eastern. final polls in the state, mountain part of the state close at 9:00 pm tonight. joining me now, just back from brownsville, texas, near the border. he caught up with the candidates for governor. ro ronin, what have you got? >> celebration of the links with mexico they have down there on the border. and it was a powder keg partly because this was a latino majority and those are voters who sat it out largely in the last gubernatorial election. that made all the difference. hitting that demographic hard and hitting all those issues with national significance which has given this race so much attention from abortion to obamacare's rollout to voter rights. that's all right there in that fight that wendy davis and abbott are staging right now. we see them fighting for their

lives atacher's throats. it's really intense already. >> ronin, i want to get you to play a few clips. after the whole ted nugent issue first hit, there were a lot of hits on abbott, trying to get him to distance himself from nugent. the davis campaign has been pushing the nugent issue for days on after and it seemed to be part of the conversations you've had with both of them. >> she has been accused of going way, way negative. she was actually surprising on that subject. i'll show you a little sneak peek right now. take a listen. >> we're all responsible for our actions, and he has reflected by associating himself with a person like ted nugent what his values really are. >> as long as she's talking about me, then i'm talkicontinu

expand my lead against her. >> he's saying it only helps him. her currently flagging number that is she keeps up the negativity. we'll have more on that at ronan farrow. >> you beat me to the punch. 1:00 today, interview with his both wendy davis and greg abbott. we gave you a little taste there. ronan, thank you for getting up a little early today. >> great primer there. >> thank you. winter weather hit overnight from austin, san antonio, houston. it's produced already more than 40,000 power outages. it will damper voter turnout. polls places there will not open until 11:00 am today and in williamson county to the north some polling places were being tlaed as well. of course, texas, half the primary vote -- more than half this time is expected to have already voted early.

joining me now, the texas tribune's emily ramshon. one of the ways that democrats are making any progress on registering voters and on ramping up their base here, if it's going to happen, will the raw democratic number in the primaries actually be higher than it was four years ago? what do you expect? >> it's possible that the raw numbers will be higher, largely because there's been a national operation at play here. a lot of obama accolades have been down here in battleground texas, trying to get voters registered. you may see these wintry conditions keep iing people hom. there also aren't that many opposed races on the democratic side of the ballot. you may see people here who know that wendy davis will be in the race and will hold on until november. >> all the action clearly on the republican side of the aisle. let's talk about some of this establishment versus the

conservative wing of the party. some of it call it a tea party. clearly dewhurst is in the crosshairs, once again second cycle in a row having to carry the torch via the establishment. how much trouble is he in? a runoff seems likely. if he couldn't survive a runoff in 12, i don't know how he does it this time. >> i think the question is, what's going to happen and who his opponent is going to be in this runoff. it's almost assured he's going to be in a runoff. from the polling numbers we've seen, he's going to be in the lead. if he ends up with dan patrick in a runoff who is running to the right of dewhurst, we've seen how he faired in runoffs before when ted cruz came in. the question is whether dewhurst can hang on. the tea party in texas has not been as aligned as we've seen them in past years. i think there's still a sense that dewhurst could eek this out

even with a far right opponent. >> you know, you spoke just a moment about keisha rogers, running for the democratic nomination in u.s. senate. again, our polling numbers show she is in the lead zbl. >> unbelievable. >> despite democrats trying to force her out. >> you can't have problems like this in u.s. senate primaries if you're trying to become a major party again. emily ramshaw, thank you very much. before we go, special lone star soup of the day at the capital grill in austin, they're serving up beef and barley, one of the best. that is just a good, old-fashioned, hearty soup. sin. it's time for advil cold and sinus. [ male announcer ] truth is that won't relieve all your symptoms. new alka seltzer plus-d relieves more symptoms than any other behind the counter liquid gel. oh what a relief it is. than any other behind the counter liquid gel. transferred money from his before larry instantly bank of america savings account to his merrill edge retirement account. before he opened his first hot chocolate stand

calling winter an "underserved season". and before he quit his friend's leaf-raking business for "not offering a 401k." larry knew the importance of preparing for retirement. that's why when the time came he counted on merrill edge to streamline his investing and help him plan for the road ahead. that's the power of streamlined connections. that's merrill edge and bank of america.

itit grows more sophisticated baevery day. back alleys. if it were a business, it would be a fortune 500 company. fraud has evolved. american express intelligent security gives you tools to fight fraud and a global service network that never stops working.

so you can be a member of a more secure world. this is what membership is. this is what membership does. lovely read susan. may i read something? yes, please. of course. a rich, never bitter taste cup after cup. 340 grams. [ sighs ] [ male announcer ] always rich, never bitter. gevalia. from crest 3d white, new brilliance toothpaste and boost. after brushing, our exclusive boost polishes your smile and whitens with 3x the stain lifting ingredient for a smile that dazzles. new crest 3d white brilliance. trivia time. many of you probably knew this. john tower was the first elected during the 20th century, it happened, of course, '61. special election there. congratulations to today's winner, brent perron. we'll be right back.

anybody have occasional constipation, diarrhea, gas, bloating? one phillips' colon health probiotic cap each day helps defend against these digestive issues with three types of good bacteria. i should probably take this. live the regular life. phillips'.

the new nokia lumia icon. it's got 1080p video, three times zoom, and a twenty-megapixel sensor. it's got the brightest display, so i can see what i'm shooting -- even outdoors, and 4 mics that capture incredible sound. plus, it has apps like vine -- and free cloud storage. my new lumia icon is so great, even our wipeouts look amazing. ♪ honestly, i want to see you be brave ♪ ♪

take away time, we're expecting israeli prime minister netanyahu to speak at aipac any minute now. it will be the clearest response of what happened yesterday. president obama assured him of his absolute commitment to prevent iran from developing a nuclear weapon and urged the israeli prime minister to make tough decisions to keep the attempts for a peace deal with the palestinians alive. here's the exchange. >> they are tough negotiations, the issues are profound. obviously, if they were easy, they'd be resolved many years ago. it's difficult and requires compromise on all sides. >> he expressed his frustration with the palestinians, saying they must recognize a legitimate jewish state.

>> israel has been doing its part, and i regret to say that the palestinians haven't. what we all want fervently is peace. not a piece of paper, although that too, but a real peace. >> question remains whether the two sides will sign a peace framework by the end of april, the deadline set by secretary kerry. in two weeks, president obama is scheduled to meet with the palestinian president. we'll be paying close attention to that meeting, as well. while the president had some tough love for netanyahu, a lot of people say this was designed actually to give abbas as much running room as he needs, because one thing i think the president thinks he's going to get out of abbas is a public recognition of israel's right to exist. that would be a big deal and step forward. that's it for this edition of

"the daily rundown." coming up next is chris jansing. i'll see you. i'm meteorologist bill karins, and travel on this tuesday will be a lot easier than monday with that snowstorm in the midatlantic. we shouldn't have a lot of flight cancellations or delays today with the cold weather being the story from the great lakes to the ohio valley to the northeast. different story in south texas, louisiana, and mississippi, rain and even freezing rain this morning. careful driving there. have a great day. where villages floated on water and castles were houses dragons lurked, giants stood tall, and the good queen showed the boy it could all be real. avo: whatever you can imagine, all in one place. expedia, find yours. (music)

defiance is in our bones. defiance never grows old. citracal maximum. calcium citrate plus d. highly soluble, easily absorbed.

kand i don't have time foris morunreliable companies.b angie's list definitely saves me time and money. for over 18 years we've helped people take care of the things that matter most. join today.

putin's perspective, the russian president says the ukrainian people are asking for his help and he will use military force only as a last resort. but russian troops are firing warning shots in ukraine, several fast moving developments on the ground as secretary of state john kerry landed in kiev this morning. the new video showing him with ukraine's acting president has the white house lays out its economic plan to bolster ukraine's finances. next hour at home, president obama puts his money where his mouth is, unveiling a budget that backs up his income inequality message that backs young children and universal e pre-k. and it has been a winter of extreme cold, record snow. has the deep freeze changed h